Originally published 2022-03-14.
In mid-March 2022, less than three weeks into Russia's full-scale invasion, the chief negotiators on both sides suddenly sounded hopeful. Ukraine's Mykhailo Podolyak and Russia's Leonid Slutsky each told the public that talks were moving forward and that something concrete might be ready within days. No peace agreement was signed then, and none has been signed since. This page explains what the two men actually said, what each side wanted, how the talks developed through the Istanbul round at the end of March, and why the optimism faded.
What the negotiators said in March 2022
On 13 March, after a round of contacts with the Russian delegation, Podolyak, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky's office, released a video statement. He insisted Kyiv would give up nothing of principle, but said Moscow had started to engage seriously. "I think that we will achieve some results literally in a matter of days," he said, as reported by MSN. He listed Ukraine's demands plainly: the fighting had to stop and Russian troops had to leave.
Slutsky, a member of the Russian State Duma who sat on Moscow's delegation, gave journalists a similarly upbeat reading. Speaking of his own expectations, he said the progress might grow "into a joint position of both delegations, into documents for signing." Around the same time Vladimir Putin was reported to have spoken of positive movement in the talks.
The change of tone was striking. Earlier meetings had produced little beyond arguments over evacuation routes, and many observers had treated the talks as a sideshow to the fighting. Even so, an expectation is not an agreement. Neither man claimed that terms had been settled, and both framed their comments as personal assessments.
How the talks were organised
The first three face-to-face rounds took place in Belarus, close to the Ukrainian and Polish borders, on 28 February, 3 March and 7 March 2022. Their main practical result was agreement in principle on humanitarian corridors so civilians could leave besieged towns, although many of those corridors broke down under shelling.
A separate, higher-level meeting followed on 10 March in Antalya, Turkey, where foreign ministers Sergei Lavrov and Dmytro Kuleba met with Turkey's Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu acting as host. It was the most senior contact between the two governments since the invasion began. Ukraine asked for a 24-hour ceasefire to get aid into Mariupol; it left without one.
From 14 March the delegations moved to video conferences, with working groups meeting over several days. These are the talks Podolyak and Slutsky were describing. Zelensky said on 16 March that Russia's positions were starting to sound more realistic, while France's foreign minister accused Moscow of only pretending to negotiate. Both views circulated at once, which says a lot about how uncertain the moment was.
The demands on the table
Russia's public conditions had been consistent since before the invasion. Moscow wanted Ukraine to accept a neutral status and drop its ambition to join NATO, to recognise Crimea as Russian, and to accept the self-declared "people's republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas as independent. It also spoke of "demilitarisation" and "denazification", terms Ukraine and its allies rejected as a pretext for war.
Kyiv's starting point was the reverse: a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Russian forces and no recognition of any territorial changes. By late March, however, Zelensky said publicly that neutrality could be discussed if Ukraine received binding security guarantees from other countries. That shift is what made the talks look more serious than before.
The Istanbul round and the communiqué
The delegations met in person again on 29 March 2022 at the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan opened the session and urged a truce. According to Ukrainska Pravda, the meeting lasted about three hours and covered security guarantees for Ukraine, a ceasefire and humanitarian questions.
Ukraine's delegation presented a framework that became known as the Istanbul Communiqué. Under it, Ukraine would become a permanently neutral state outside military blocs, in exchange for guarantees from several countries that would be obliged to help it if attacked. Ukraine would remain free to seek EU membership, and the status of Crimea would be set aside for a 15-year period of consultations. The question of the Donbas was left for a possible meeting between the two presidents.
On the same day Russia's defence ministry announced a sharp reduction of military activity around Kyiv and Chernihiv, presenting it as a goodwill gesture. Ukrainian and Western officials described it instead as a retreat after the assault on the capital had stalled.
Why no deal was signed
Within days of the Russian pull-back from the Kyiv region, journalists and investigators entered towns such as Bucha and found the bodies of civilians in streets, yards and mass graves. The discoveries in early April 2022 caused international outrage and made compromise politically far harder in Ukraine. Drafting work nonetheless continued for some weeks.
The detailed drafts showed deep gaps. Russia wanted a say over whether guarantor states could respond to an attack, which would have made the guarantees nearly meaningless to Kyiv. The two sides were also far apart on the size of Ukraine's future army, with Ukraine proposing roughly 250,000 troops and Russia far fewer. Territory, the most sensitive issue, was never resolved. Historians Samuel Charap and Sergey Radchenko, who later studied the drafts, also pointed to the absence of a ceasefire, Western hesitancy about giving firm guarantees, and Ukraine's growing confidence after Russia's retreat from the north. By May, the talks had effectively stopped.
The human cost in March 2022
When these talks were taking place, the war had already become the deadliest in Europe since 1945. Thousands of soldiers and civilians had been killed, and the UN refugee agency was recording millions of people crossing into Poland, Romania, Hungary, Moldova and Slovakia. Cities such as Mariupol, Kharkiv and Chernihiv were under heavy bombardment, and Russian forces were still trying to encircle Kyiv. That pressure explains why every hopeful word from the negotiating room drew so much attention.
Reading peace-talk headlines
The March 2022 episode is a useful guide to wartime diplomacy. Negotiators talk to several audiences at once: the other side, their own public, allies and markets. Optimistic statements can be sincere, tactical or both. A few practical questions help when a report says a deal is "days away":
- Has either side published a text, or only described progress?
- Are the core disputes, such as territory and security, mentioned as settled or simply avoided?
- Is fighting easing on the ground, or continuing at the same pace?
- Do leaders, rather than delegates, confirm the claims?
In March 2022 the honest answer to most of those questions was "not yet", which is why the hopeful comments did not become a signed agreement.
Sources: MSN: Russia and Ukraine give brightest assessment yet of progress in talks; Ukrainska Pravda, 29 March 2022: Talks in Istanbul end; Wikipedia: Peace negotiations in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
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