Originally published 2022-07-04.
In early July 2022, the environment and energy senator of Hamburg, Germany's second-largest city, Jens Kerstan warned that if Russian gas deliveries to Germany collapsed, the city might have to ration hot water for households, supplying it only at certain hours of the day, and cap room temperatures on its district heating network. It was a contingency plan for an emergency, not a measure that was switched on, and in the end Germany got through the following winter without rationing gas to homes. The warning still says a lot about how close Europe's largest economy came to an energy shock in 2022.
What Kerstan actually said
Kerstan, a Green politician who runs Hamburg's environment and energy department, gave an interview to the Sunday paper Welt am Sonntag. As reported by Euronews and Fortune on 4 July 2022, he said that in an acute gas shortage "warm water could only be made available at certain times of the day." He added that the city could lower the maximum temperature delivered through its heating network.
He also issued a blunter warning, quoted by Insider: "We are in a much worse crisis than most people realise." His point was practical. Gas saved in summer goes into storage, and the fuller those stores are by autumn, the less likely it is that anyone has to choose between heating homes and keeping factories running.
One detail explains why a city, rather than Berlin, was talking about hot water. Germany's emergency plan puts households and hospitals ahead of industry if gas has to be rationed. Kerstan pointed out that in parts of Hamburg's network it is technically hard to separate private customers from commercial ones, so protecting homes alone might not be possible everywhere.
Why Germany was so exposed
Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Germany bought more Russian gas than any other EU country. The share most often quoted for 2021 is around 55 per cent of German gas imports. By the summer of 2022 that had already fallen; Reuters, cited by Euronews, put Russia's share at just under a third. Berlin had set out a plan to wean itself off Russian gas within roughly two years.
Much of that gas arrived through Nord Stream 1, the Baltic Sea pipeline that runs from Russia to Lubmin in north-east Germany and opened in 2011. Its twin, Nord Stream 2, was finished in 2021 but never entered service: Germany halted its approval on 22 February 2022, two days before the invasion, after Russia recognised two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine. (Some write-ups at the time described Nord Stream 2 as an oil pipeline; it was built for natural gas.)
In mid-June 2022, Gazprom cut flows through Nord Stream 1 to about 40 per cent of capacity, blaming a turbine sent to Canada for repair. German officials rejected that explanation. Germany's main importer, Uniper, was receiving only part of its contracted volumes and soon needed a state rescue. Gas storage stood at about 61 per cent in early July, against a target of 90 per cent before winter.
Germany's three-stage gas emergency plan
Germany's response ran on a three-step emergency plan. The economy minister, Robert Habeck, triggered the first stage, an early warning, on 30 March 2022 and urged people and businesses to use less energy voluntarily. After the June cuts the government moved to stage two, the alarm level, which signals a significant worsening of supply.
Stage three is the emergency level, the only one where the state steps in to allocate gas. Hamburg's hot-water warning was effectively a description of what stage three might look like at street level. That stage was never declared.
Habeck also warned of a possible "Lehman Brothers effect", meaning that the collapse of a big gas importer could spread through energy markets the way the 2008 bank failure spread through finance. That fear is why the government moved to support Uniper.
Replacing Russian gas
Europe hunted for other suppliers. Norway and the Netherlands raised output where they could. Germany bought liquefied natural gas on world markets in large volumes, which pushed up LNG prices and caused friction with poorer importers elsewhere. In May 2022 Germany and Qatar signed a declaration on energy cooperation, with Qatari LNG deliveries planned from 2024.
Germany had no LNG import terminal of its own in 2022. The government fast-tracked floating terminals, with the first ones at Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbüttel expected at the end of the year. Hamburg itself studied a temporary terminal, though Kerstan said it could not operate before the following May at the earliest.
The trade unions, along with many economists, warned that a sudden cut-off could tip Germany into recession by shutting energy-hungry plants in chemicals, steel and glass. Industry did suffer: higher energy costs squeezed margins at German chemical and steel producers throughout 2022.
What happened next
The situation got worse before it got better. Nord Stream 1 was shut for maintenance on 11 July 2022, came back at reduced flows, and Gazprom stopped deliveries entirely from 31 August. On 26 September 2022, explosions on the seabed ruptured both Nord Stream 1 pipes and one of the two Nord Stream 2 pipes. Swedish and Danish investigations closed without naming a culprit; German prosecutors later said they had identified a team of divers linked to Ukraine and issued an arrest warrant.
Yet the feared winter crisis did not arrive. Storage targets were met, households and companies cut consumption, new LNG terminals came online and a relatively mild winter helped. Germany never reached the emergency stage, and Hamburg did not have to ration hot water.
Lessons for households
The Hamburg warning is a useful reminder of how much everyday comfort depends on decisions made far away. A few points still apply to anyone paying energy bills:
- Hot water is a big share of home energy use. Shorter showers, a water-saving shower head and washing clothes at lower temperatures cut gas or electricity use without much sacrifice.
- Each degree counts. Lowering room temperature slightly is one of the cheapest savings available, which is why cities like Hamburg looked at capping heating levels first.
- Keep hot water hot enough. If you do turn down a boiler or water heater, keep stored hot water at the temperature your installer or local health guidance recommends, because water kept too cool can allow Legionella bacteria to grow.
- Diversity is security. Germany's scramble showed the risk of relying on one supplier for a vital fuel, a lesson that applies to countries, companies and households alike.
Sources: Euronews, 4 July 2022; Fortune, 4 July 2022; Wikipedia: 2022–2023 Russia–EU gas dispute; Wikipedia: Nord Stream; original interview in Welt am Sonntag, as reported by Insider.
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