Originally published 2021-10-03.
On 1 October 2021, China's National Day, Taiwan reported that 38 Chinese military aircraft had entered its air-defence identification zone (ADIZ), the largest number in a single day since Taipei began publishing daily figures in September 2020. That record did not last long. Over the next three days the flights continued, peaking at 56 aircraft on 4 October, for a total of 149 in four days. The planes flew into the zone, not over Taiwan itself, but the scale of the operation made it one of the sharpest military signals in the Taiwan Strait in years.
Chinese and Taiwanese flags alongside a military aircraft, in an illustration taken on 9 April 2021. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration.
What happened in early October 2021
According to Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence, the 38 aircraft on 1 October arrived in two waves, one during the day and one after dark. The first group included 18 J-16 and four Su-30 fighter jets, two H-6 bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons, and an anti-submarine warfare plane. The second wave reportedly brought another 10 J-16s, two more H-6 bombers and an early-warning aircraft. Taiwan scrambled fighters, broadcast radio warnings and tracked the formations with its air-defence missile systems.
The flights were concentrated in the south-western part of the zone, near the Taiwan-controlled Pratas (Dongsha) Islands and towards the Bashi Channel, the waterway between Taiwan and the Philippines that links the South China Sea with the Pacific.
The daily totals then ran as follows, according to Taiwan's Central News Agency:
- 1 October: 38 aircraft
- 2 October: 39 aircraft
- 3 October: 16 aircraft
- 4 October: 56 aircraft, including 34 J-16 fighters and 12 H-6 bombers
The previous single-day high had been 28 aircraft, in June 2021.
How Taiwan responded
Taiwan's government condemned the flights in strong terms. Premier Su Tseng-chang accused Beijing of acting "wantonly" and damaging regional peace, and later described the operations as bullying by China. Taipei also made clear that it would defend itself.
Beijing has generally described such exercises as a response to what it calls collusion between Taiwanese "separatists" and foreign forces, particularly the United States. The timing, around China's National Day, was widely read as a show of strength.
An air-defence zone is not territorial airspace
Many headlines described the flights as an "incursion into Taiwanese territory". That is misleading. An ADIZ is a zone that a country declares on its own to identify and track approaching aircraft, giving it time to react. It is much larger than a country's territorial airspace, which under international law extends only 12 nautical miles from the coast.
ADIZs are not defined in any international treaty. Taiwan's zone, first drawn up by the US military after the Second World War, covers most of the Taiwan Strait and even stretches over parts of mainland China's Fujian, Zhejiang and Jiangxi provinces. The Chinese aircraft in October 2021 entered this wider zone; they did not fly over Taiwan's main island or its territorial airspace. The distinction matters, because entering an ADIZ is a form of pressure and probing, not an act of war.
Why China and Taiwan are at odds
The roots of the conflict lie in the Chinese Civil War. In 1949, after losing to Mao Zedong's Communists, Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalist government retreated to Taiwan. The Communists founded the People's Republic of China (PRC) in Beijing, while the Republic of China (ROC) continued to govern Taiwan and nearby islands. The two sides have been ruled separately ever since.
Beijing regards Taiwan as part of its territory and has never ruled out using force to bring it under its control. Taiwan has become a vibrant democracy with its own elected government, military and currency, and most people there do not want to be ruled by Beijing. However, the PRC holds China's seat at the United Nations, and only a small number of countries formally recognise the ROC. Most governments, including the United States, keep unofficial ties with Taipei.
The US role
Under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, the US sells defensive weapons to Taiwan, and Taiwan funds its own sizeable armed forces with heavy reliance on American equipment. Washington follows a policy known as strategic ambiguity: it does not say for certain whether it would intervene militarily if China attacked. That uncertainty is meant to deter both an invasion by Beijing and a formal declaration of independence by Taipei.
How serious was the risk of war?
Analysts disagree on how close the region is to conflict. Some warn that a Chinese attempt to take Taiwan by force could draw in the United States and its allies, with catastrophic consequences, and that Taiwan is one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world. Others argue that an invasion across at least 130 km of open sea would be extraordinarily difficult and costly, and that Beijing has far more to lose than to gain from war, preferring pressure, coercion and patience instead.
The October 2021 flights fitted the second pattern: a highly visible demonstration of capability that stopped short of direct confrontation. They also served as training for long-range operations and tested how quickly Taiwan could respond, wearing down its pilots and aircraft through constant scrambles.
The wider regional picture
The flights came a few weeks after Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced AUKUS on 15 September 2021. The partnership's centrepiece is helping Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines. It does not name China officially, but it was widely seen as a response to China's growing military power in the Indo-Pacific, and Beijing condemned it.
At the same time, on 2 and 3 October 2021, American aircraft carriers, the British carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth and ships from Japan and other navies took part in a joint exercise in the region. Military activity around Taiwan has continued since, with much larger Chinese drills in later years, which makes October 2021 an important early marker of how the pressure was escalating.
Key takeaways
- Taiwan reported 38 Chinese military aircraft in its ADIZ on 1 October 2021, then a record 56 on 4 October; 149 in total over four days.
- The aircraft entered Taiwan's self-declared identification zone, not its territorial airspace.
- The flights were a show of force timed around China's National Day and amid new Western security partnerships in the region.
- The underlying dispute dates back to 1949 and remains unresolved.
Sources: GlobalSecurity (Central News Agency), 4 October 2021; Reuters, 2 October 2021; Wikipedia: Air defense identification zone. Photo: Reuters/Dado Ruvic.
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