Most marriages that end in divorce do not collapse because of one dramatic event. Long-term studies of couples point to something quieter: partners stop turning towards each other, affection fades, criticism crowds out warmth, and one or both people shut down when problems come up. Those four patterns (low responsiveness, lost affection, too much negativity and stonewalling) are the subject of this guide, together with what the best-known research actually found and what couples can do when they recognise themselves.
A quick note on scale. In the United States, the share of first marriages expected to end in divorce is often put at 40 to 50 percent, and rates have drifted down since their peak around 1980. Affairs, money and addiction matter, but researchers who follow couples over years find that how two people treat each other day to day usually tells you more.
What the long-term studies found
Two research programmes dominate this topic. The first is psychologist Ted Huston’s PAIR Project (Processes of Adaptation in Intimate Relationships), which began in 1981 with 168 newlywed couples from rural Pennsylvania and followed them for 13 years. By the end, 56 of the couples had divorced. Huston found that the clearest warning sign was not early conflict but disillusionment: couples who later split often started out intensely romantic, then saw their love and affectionate behaviour drop sharply during the first two years. Couples whose marriages stayed steady, even if not blissful, showed much smaller changes.
The second is the work of John Gottman, who spent 16 years as a psychology professor at the University of Washington and became famous for observing couples as they discussed disagreements. Gottman described four communication styles he called the “Four Horsemen”: criticism, contempt, defensiveness and stonewalling. The Gottman Institute calls contempt the single greatest predictor of divorce.
The four behaviours below draw on both bodies of work. They overlap with the Horsemen but are not identical to them, and it helps to keep both lists in mind.
1. Not responding to your partner
Responsiveness means noticing what your partner says or needs and reacting in a way that shows it registered. It can be as small as looking up from your phone when they mention a hard day, or asking a follow-up question. Gottman’s lab used the phrase “turning towards” for these moments, and couples who did it often fared better.
When responses dry up, the partner reaching out learns that bids for attention go nowhere. Many people stop trying, which looks like peace from the outside but is really distance. Agreement is not the point; engagement is. You can disagree completely and still make it clear you heard.
What helps
- Put the screen down for the first few minutes when you both get home.
- Reflect back what you heard before giving your view: “So the meeting ran over and you missed lunch?”
- Ask one curious question a day about something your partner cares about.
2. Letting affection fade
This is the pattern Huston’s data highlighted most strongly. Holding hands, kissing hello, flirting, sex and warm words are common early on, and it is normal for the intensity to settle as jobs, children and bills arrive. The trouble starts when affection drops away almost entirely and neither person names it.
A partner who no longer feels wanted tends to feel taken for granted, and resentment builds quietly. Because nothing obvious has gone wrong, couples can drift for years before realising how far apart they are. Huston’s finding that the first two years are especially telling suggests it is worth noticing early when affection is sliding.
What helps
- Small, frequent gestures matter more than occasional grand ones.
- Talk openly about what makes each of you feel cared for; it is often different for each person.
- If physical intimacy has stalled for reasons neither of you can work out, a doctor or a sex therapist can help rule out medical causes.
3. When negativity outweighs the positive
Couples need to raise complaints; bottling up anger rarely ends well. The risk comes when criticism becomes the main way partners talk to each other. Gottman draws a line between a complaint about a specific behaviour (“You didn’t call when you were late”) and criticism of character (“You never think about anyone but yourself”). The second invites defensiveness, and a cycle of attack and counter-attack can follow.
Contempt is the sharpest form: sarcasm, mockery, eye-rolling and name-calling from a position of superiority. Because Gottman’s research ranks it as the strongest warning sign of all, it is worth taking seriously even in small doses.
Gottman is also known for a rough rule that stable couples have about five positive interactions for every negative one during conflict. Treat the exact ratio as a guide rather than a law, but the idea is sound: praise, thanks and humour need to outweigh the complaints.
What helps
- Start difficult conversations gently and describe your own feelings rather than your partner’s flaws.
- Say thank you for ordinary things, out loud.
- When you notice contempt creeping in, try to name what you actually need instead.
4. Stonewalling and shutting down
If the first pattern is about failing to listen, this one is about refusing to speak. Stonewalling means withdrawing from a conflict: going silent, leaving the room, or answering in monosyllables until the other person gives up. It is one of Gottman’s Four Horsemen and often follows contempt.
People who stonewall usually are not trying to be cruel. Many feel overwhelmed, with a racing heart and a mind that cannot process anything more, a state Gottman calls flooding. The partner on the other side, though, experiences it as being shut out, and the problem stays unresolved.
What helps
- Agree on a signal for “I need a break, not an exit.”
- The Gottman Institute suggests about 20 minutes doing something soothing alone, such as a walk or reading, before coming back to the discussion.
- Return to the conversation as promised; a break only works if the talk resumes.
How accurate are divorce predictions?
Articles on this topic often say researchers can predict divorce with 83 or even 90 percent accuracy. Those numbers deserve caution. The figures linked to Gottman come from small samples, including a 1998 study of newlyweds, and critics such as psychologist Richard Heyman and journalist Laurie Abraham have pointed out that the formulas were built after the researchers already knew which couples had divorced and were not tested on a fresh group. With small samples, a model fitted that way can look far more accurate than it would be in real life.
The 83 percent figure that circulates online is often credited to the University of Washington, but the paper it is usually linked to is Huston’s PAIR Project, which was based in Pennsylvania. We could not match the exact number to a single published result, so it is best read as a rough claim rather than a measured fact.
None of this makes the patterns meaningless. Long-running studies agree that warmth, responsiveness and the way couples handle conflict matter a great deal. They simply cannot tell any one couple what will happen to them.
If you recognise your relationship here
Seeing one or more of these patterns in your own marriage is common and not a verdict. Most couples slip into them at stressful times. What matters is whether both people are willing to notice and change course.
- Name the pattern without blame. “I think we’ve both stopped really listening” lands better than “You never listen.”
- Pick one habit to change first. Small consistent shifts in responsiveness or affection are easier to keep than a complete overhaul.
- Consider couples counselling. A trained therapist can help partners break cycles they cannot see from inside. Gottman-trained, emotionally focused and other evidence-based approaches are widely available, including online.
- Put safety first. If a relationship involves fear, threats or violence, the advice above does not apply; contact a local domestic abuse service.
A marriage usually takes two people to end, and two people to rebuild. If you both still want it, the research suggests there is plenty you can do.
Sources: Psychology Today: Will your marriage last? (Ted Huston’s PAIR Project); The Gottman Institute: The Four Horsemen; Wikipedia: John Gottman (prediction claims and criticism); original article idea: I Heart Intelligence.
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