Originally published 2021-05-24.
In May 2021, Russian state news agency TASS quoted a defence-industry source as saying that the RS-28 Sarmat, a new heavy intercontinental ballistic missile that Western media call "Satan II", would make its first flight-development launch in the third quarter of 2021, aimed at the Kura test range on Kamchatka. That schedule slipped. The first full flight test actually took place on 20 April 2022, and the programme has since had a mix of announced successes and reported failures.
Here is what Sarmat is, where the nickname comes from, which claims about it hold up, and how the test programme has gone since the 2021 announcement.
What the Sarmat is
The RS-28 Sarmat is a three-stage, liquid-fuelled missile launched from underground silos. It was designed by the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau and named after the Sarmatians, an ancient nomadic people of the Eurasian steppe. NATO's reporting name for it is SS-X-29 (sometimes given as SS-X-30).
It is very large. Published figures give a launch mass of about 208 tonnes, a length of around 35 metres and a diameter of 3 metres. Russian sources claim it can carry roughly 10 tonnes of payload over a range of about 18,000 kilometres (around 11,200 miles), enough to reach almost anywhere on Earth. Some reports give the range as 18,000 miles, but that mixes up the units: the figure is in kilometres.
Where "Satan II" comes from
The nickname is inherited. Sarmat is meant to replace the Soviet-era R-36M family, which NATO designated SS-18 and code-named "Satan". The newer missile simply picked up the sequel name in Western headlines. Russia uses neither label officially.
What it is designed to carry
Like its predecessor, Sarmat is built to carry multiple independently targetable warheads (MIRVs), so one missile can strike several targets. Reported configurations include about ten heavy warheads, 15 or 16 lighter ones, or a smaller number of Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles, possibly combined with decoys meant to confuse missile defences.
Russian officials also say the missile can fly unusual trajectories, including over the South Pole, so it would not have to approach the United States from the north where early-warning radars face. Vladimir Putin has claimed it has a short boost phase, making it harder to track and intercept early in flight.
Separating claims from facts
Much of what circulates about Sarmat comes from Russian state media and should be read with care.
- "Unstoppable." Russia says no missile defence can stop it. In practice, current US ground-based interceptors were never designed to stop a large, deliberate Russian salvo, so this is less a unique feature of Sarmat than a long-standing fact of nuclear deterrence.
- "Can wipe out an area the size of France or Texas." This line comes from Russian state media. It cannot be independently verified and is best treated as propaganda rather than an engineering estimate.
- "Supersonic." All ICBMs travel at many times the speed of sound on re-entry, so speed alone does not set Sarmat apart; its claimed payload and flexible trajectories are what Russia highlights.
Why Russia built it
Moscow links Sarmat to the US decision, announced by President George W. Bush in December 2001, to withdraw from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, which had sharply limited missile defences. Russian planners argued that US defences could one day blunt their deterrent, so they wanted missiles able to overwhelm or bypass them.
Putin unveiled Sarmat publicly on 1 March 2018 as one of six new strategic weapons, in a speech that included animated videos of warheads heading towards the United States. Addressing the West over the treaty withdrawal, he said: "You didn't listen to our country then. Listen to us now."
The weapon also arrived as arms control was fraying. Since the late 1980s, Washington and Moscow had cut their arsenals through a series of treaties, and the New START treaty capped deployed strategic warheads. At the time of the 2021 announcement, relations were tense: President Joe Biden, newly in office, was openly critical of the Kremlin and accused it of interfering in Western elections.
The test record since 2021
The third-quarter 2021 launch did not happen on schedule. Instead:
- 20 April 2022: the first full flight test, launched from a silo at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia. Russian officials said the dummy warhead reached its target on Kamchatka. Putin said the missile had no analogues in the world. Analysts quoted by CNN saw the timing, two months into the invasion of Ukraine, as nuclear sabre-rattling.
- February 2023: a test that US officials described as a failure; Russia did not confirm or deny it.
- 1 September 2023: the head of Roscosmos said Sarmat had been placed on combat duty.
- September 2024: satellite images showed a crater about 62 metres wide at a Plesetsk silo, widely interpreted as a failed launch that destroyed the site. Russia did not comment.
- November 2025: video showed a launch from the Dombarovsky base veering off course and crashing near the site.
- May 2026: Putin announced a successful Sarmat test.
What it means
Sarmat is real and has flown, but its path from announcement to reliable service has been far slower and bumpier than the 2021 timeline suggested. Russia's own deployment dates had already slipped repeatedly; officials in 2014 expected it to enter service around 2020.
For readers, the useful lesson is to treat any single announcement, whether a planned test date or a dramatic claim about destructive power, as a statement of intent. Successful testing, qualification and real operational deployment are separate steps, and in Sarmat's case each one has taken years.
Sources: Wikipedia: RS-28 Sarmat; Space.com, April 2022: first full flight test of Sarmat; Futurism (original report).
COMMENTS