Originally published 2020-11-16.
On 11 November 2020, the United Kingdom became the first country in Europe to record more than 50,000 deaths from Covid-19. Government figures that day put the total at 50,365, after 595 more deaths were reported, the highest daily figure since May. Worldwide, only the United States, Brazil, India and Mexico had passed the same mark.
The milestone arrived in the middle of a second wave, a week into a new lockdown in England, and just days after the first encouraging vaccine results. Here is what the number meant, how it was counted, and how the rest of Europe was responding at the time.
How the 50,000 figure was counted
The headline total counted people who died within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test. That definition was quick to update, but it missed people who died later from the disease and anyone who was never tested, so the true toll was widely considered higher. Counts based on death certificates that mentioned Covid-19, published by the national statistics agencies, already showed a larger number by then.
Different definitions are one reason international comparisons are tricky. Some countries counted only hospital deaths, others included suspected cases, and testing levels varied enormously. Researchers later turned to "excess deaths," the gap between deaths recorded and deaths normally expected, as a fairer way to compare.
Some reports at the time said "almost 1 in every 1,000" people in the UK had died. With a population of around 67 million, 50,000 deaths is closer to 1 in 1,300: a smaller share, but still a stark figure.
How the UK compared with the rest of Europe
By total deaths, the UK had overtaken Italy, the first European country hit hard by the virus in early 2020. Totals favour large countries, so per-person rates give a clearer picture. On that measure, according to Our World in Data, the UK ranked among the worst-affected large countries in Europe, behind Belgium and Spain.
Sweden attracted particular attention. It had avoided a full national lockdown during the first wave, relying mostly on voluntary guidance. By late 2020, its Covid-19 death rate per head was roughly ten times that of neighbouring Norway and more than four times that of Denmark, according to the same data. Facing a sharp rise in cases that autumn, Sweden tightened its rules.
A second wave and new lockdowns
England had entered a four-week national lockdown on 5 November. Pubs, restaurants, gyms, hairdressers and shops selling non-essential goods had to close until at least 2 December. Unlike the spring lockdown, schools, universities, factories and building sites stayed open. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, which set their own health rules, ran separate systems of restrictions.
New infections were running at more than 20,000 a day, with 22,950 positive tests reported on 11 November. Daily case numbers seemed to be levelling off, but experts warned that hospital admissions and deaths would keep rising for weeks, because they lag behind infections.
Across the continent, governments were taking similar steps. France, Germany and Austria brought in national lockdowns of varying strictness. Portugal, facing a second wave far worse than its first, introduced curfews under a state of emergency. Greece imposed a nationwide night-time curfew. Liverpool, meanwhile, began testing its whole population as a pilot for mass testing.
Political reaction and criticism
Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who had himself been treated in intensive care for Covid-19 in April, argued that the country was better prepared than in the spring, with more testing and vaccines on the horizon. He also warned that "we are not out of the woods yet."
Doctors' leaders were scathing. Dr Chaand Nagpaul, chair of the British Medical Association council, called the figure "a terrible indictment of poor preparation, poor organisation by the government." He pointed to weak infection control and late, confusing public messaging, and said the UK should never have reached this point.
Critics also noted that the government had again been accused of locking down too late, as in March. Calls were growing for a public inquiry into testing failures, early shortages of protective equipment, and high death rates in care homes and among ethnic minority communities. A statutory UK Covid-19 Inquiry was later set up to examine these questions.
Vaccine hopes: what was true in November 2020
The government urged optimism because of early vaccine results. On 9 November, Pfizer and BioNTech announced that their vaccine appeared highly effective in interim trial data, and Moderna reported similar results for its vaccine a week later. Some coverage at the time described the vaccines as already "available." They were not yet: neither had been approved by regulators.
The UK had pre-ordered about 40 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine and, at first, had no deal for the Moderna vaccine. It moved quickly to sign one in the following weeks, announcing an additional 2 million Moderna doses on 29 November. On 2 December 2020, the UK's medicines regulator, the MHRA, became the first in the world to authorise the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. On 8 December, 90-year-old Margaret Keenan became the first person to receive it outside a clinical trial.
What the milestone tells us now
The 50,000 mark was far from the end. Deaths rose steeply again over the winter of 2020 to 2021, before vaccination and new treatments sharply reduced the death rate. Looking back, the November figure stands as a marker of how badly the UK was hit before vaccines arrived, and of the debate about whether earlier action could have saved lives.
For readers making sense of pandemic statistics, three lessons hold:
- Always check how a death total is defined and when it was counted.
- Compare countries per person, and where possible use excess deaths.
- Remember that deaths lag weeks behind infections, so decisions made early matter most.
Sources: AP via PBS NewsHour, 11 November 2020: UK becomes 5th country to exceed 50,000 coronavirus deaths; Euronews, 11 November 2020; Our World in Data: Covid-19 deaths; Wikipedia: COVID-19 vaccination in the United Kingdom.
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