Originally published 2020-08-14.
In an August 2020 interview with Bloomberg, Bill Gates dismissed the conspiracy theories that had grown up around him during the Covid-19 pandemic, including claims that he wanted to use vaccines to track or harm people. He called the ideas strange, worried they would put people off vaccines and masks, and gave a cautious forecast: the first vaccines would be imperfect, would reach rich countries first, and should generally not be made compulsory.
Looking back, that interview is a useful snapshot of the pandemic's most confusing months. Here is what Gates said, where the rumours came from, what the evidence shows, and how his predictions held up.
What Gates said in 2020
By the summer of 2020, Gates had become one of the most talked-about figures of the pandemic. His foundation was among the largest private funders of vaccine research and global immunisation, and that role made him a target online.
Asked about the theories, he described how they turned his work upside down. Critics, he said, take his involvement in vaccines "and they just reverse it, so instead of giving money to save lives, I'm making money to get rid of lives." His concern was practical: if such claims stopped people from getting vaccinated or following the latest advice on masks, he said, that would be a serious problem.
He was also frank about the limits of what science could deliver quickly. He warned that "the initial vaccine won't be ideal in terms of its effectiveness against sickness and transmission," that protection might not last long, and that early supplies would mostly go to wealthy countries as a stopgap. He suggested the pandemic would not be brought under control until late 2021.
On mandates, he struck a middle position. In his words, "Making something mandatory can often backfire," though he said requirements could make sense for people working in care homes or around the elderly.
The conspiracy theories about Gates
The rumours took several forms, often mixed together:
- Microchips. The claim that Covid-19 vaccines would contain tiny tracking chips or digital ID devices.
- Depopulation. The idea that vaccines were a secret plan to sterilise or kill large numbers of people.
- Planned pandemic. The suggestion that Gates had foreseen, funded or even created the virus, often based on a 2015 talk in which he warned that the world was unprepared for a pandemic.
These claims spread fast. A Yahoo News/YouGov poll reported by CNBC in 2020 found that 28% of American adults believed Gates wanted to use a Covid-19 vaccine to implant microchips in billions of people to monitor their movements. In July 2020 Gates told CBS News that he hoped the rumours would fade as people learned the facts.
What the evidence shows
There is no evidence for any of these theories, and each has been checked repeatedly by fact-checkers, regulators and independent scientists.
No chips in vaccines. Vaccines are injected through fine needles and their ingredients are listed publicly by regulators. No approved Covid-19 vaccine contains a microchip, tracking device or anything capable of transmitting a signal.
Warning is not planning. Public health experts had warned for years that a new respiratory virus could spread worldwide. Gates's 2015 talk echoed those warnings. Predicting a risk is very different from causing it, in the same way that a meteorologist who forecasts a storm did not create it.
Funding is public. The Gates Foundation's grants are published. In February 2020 it committed $100 million to the coronavirus response, and in June 2020 it pledged $1.6 billion to Gavi, the vaccine alliance that helps immunise children in lower-income countries. That is philanthropic spending, not profit.
Vaccines saved lives. Large studies since 2021 have estimated that Covid-19 vaccines prevented millions of deaths worldwide. Serious side effects exist but are rare and are monitored by health agencies.
Why rumours like these spread
Researchers who study misinformation point to a few recurring ingredients. In a frightening, uncertain situation, people look for someone to blame and for a simple story that explains what is happening. A billionaire who talks openly about pandemics and vaccines fits neatly into that role.
Social media then rewards content that provokes strong emotion. Posts about secret plots get shared far more than careful explanations. Over time, repetition makes a claim feel familiar, and familiarity is easily mistaken for truth.
Legitimate questions about big philanthropy, such as how much influence wealthy donors should have over global health priorities, can also get blurred into fantasy. It is perfectly reasonable to debate those questions. The microchip and depopulation stories, however, are not part of that debate; they are simply untrue.
How his predictions held up
When Gates spoke, about 750,000 deaths from Covid-19 had been confirmed worldwide and the United States was recording well over a thousand deaths a day. No vaccine had completed large-scale trials.
Days earlier, on 11 August 2020, Russia's health ministry had registered the Sputnik V vaccine before it entered Phase III trials, a step that alarmed scientists and drew warnings from the World Health Organization that every stage of testing must be completed. Interim Phase III results published in The Lancet in February 2021 reported 91.6% efficacy, but statisticians later raised concerns about inconsistencies in the data.
In December 2020 the United Kingdom became the first country to authorise the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for emergency use, and in August 2021 it became the first Covid-19 vaccine fully approved in the United States.
Gates turned out to be partly right and partly too pessimistic. The first vaccines were far more effective against severe illness than many experts had dared to expect in 2020. But he was correct that protection against infection and transmission was limited and faded over time, which is why booster doses became necessary. He was also right that rich countries would be served first; vaccine inequality became one of the defining injustices of 2021.
How to check a viral health claim
The Gates rumours are a good case study in how to protect yourself from misinformation:
- Find the original source. Many viral claims rest on a quote taken out of context or a misread patent or study.
- Look for independent confirmation. If a claim were true, major health agencies and investigative journalists would be reporting it.
- Check fact-checking sites. Organisations such as Reuters Fact Check, AFP Fact Check and Full Fact regularly examine popular claims.
- Notice your emotions. Posts designed to make you angry or afraid are the ones most worth slowing down for.
- Ask a professional. If you have questions about a vaccine for yourself or your family, talk to a doctor or pharmacist.
Gates's own message in 2020 was simple: the more people understood the facts, the less power the rumours would have. That remains good advice for the next health scare, whoever ends up at the centre of it.
Sources: original interview: Bloomberg, August 2020; CNBC: Bill Gates denies conspiracy theories about vaccine tracking devices; Wikipedia: Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine.
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