Originally published 2020-03-23.
In mid-March 2020, an anonymous Italian wrote a step-by-step account of how life in Italy changed as COVID-19 spread, from "it's just a bad flu" to a national lockdown, in roughly two weeks. American Twitter user Jason Yanowitz (@JasonYanowitz) posted the text as a long thread on 14 and 15 March 2020, introducing it as a warning from an Italian citizen to the rest of the world. It went viral, with the first tweet collecting hundreds of thousands of likes and retweets.
The thread described six stages, from early denial to near-total closure of public life. Below, each stage is set against what actually happened in Italy on those dates, with a few corrections where the viral version got details wrong. The original tweets have since been removed from X, but their text is preserved here.
Who wrote the thread and why it spread
A common mistake in reposts is to call Yanowitz Italian. He was not the author: he shared text he said came from an Italian citizen, whose name was never given. His framing was blunt, telling people who were still going to bars and restaurants to take the situation seriously.
If you'e still hanging with friends, going to restaurants/bars, and acting like this isn't a big deal, get your s*** together.
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
The following thread is taken from an Italian citizen.
As they put it:
"To the rest of the world, you have no idea what's coming."
MUST READ👇
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The timing explains why it spread. In mid-March 2020, Italy was the first Western country to go into full national lockdown, while much of Europe and North America was still debating whether to act. The thread offered something official statistics could not: a first-person sense of how fast ordinary life could unravel. Many readers described it as eye-opening.
It should be read as one person's observations, not as a scientific model. Countries moved through the pandemic at different speeds and in different ways. But as a snapshot of early 2020, it is a useful record.
Stages 1 and 2: denial and the first red zones
The first stage, as the author described it, is a kind of comfortable disbelief. The virus exists, a few cases appear, and the common reaction is that only the very old are at risk, so there is no need for masks, stockpiling or changes to daily life.
Let's see how things developed...
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
🟢 STAGE 1:
You know that coronavirus exists, and the first cases begin to appear in your country.
Well, nothing to worry about, it's just a bad flu!
I'm not 75+yo so what could possibly happen to me?
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STAGE 1 (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
I'm safe, everybody is overreacting, what's the need to go out with masks and stock toilet paper?
I'm going to live my life as usual, there's no need to freak out.
🔵 STAGE 2. The number of cases begins to be significant.
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In stage two, cases become significant and the first towns are sealed off. This matches the record. On 21 February 2020, Italy placed ten municipalities in Lodi province, in Lombardy, and one in Padua province, in Veneto, under quarantine. Codogno was the best-known of these towns. Around 50,000 people lived inside the "zona rossa", or red zone, which police and Carabinieri enforced at road checkpoints. The thread gives 22 February, a small slip in the date.
STAGE 2 (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
They declare "red zone" and quarantine one or two small cities where they found the first cases and a lot of people were infected (Feb 22nd).
Well that's sad and somewhat worrisome but they're taking care of it so nothing to panic about.
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STAGE 2 (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
There are some deaths but they're all old people so the media is just creating panic for views, how shameful.
People lead their life as usual.. I'm not going to stop going out and meeting my friends am I?
It's not going to get me. Everybody's fine here.
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The author's point about deaths being dismissed because the early victims were elderly is worth remembering. Age was a major risk factor, but that framing encouraged younger people to ignore the rules that protected everyone else.
Stage 3: a quarter of Italy locked down, and a leaked decree
Stage three is when numbers jump. In the early hours of 8 March 2020, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte signed a decree extending the quarantine to all of Lombardy and 14 provinces in Piedmont, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna and Marche. More than 16 million people were covered, a little over a quarter of Italy's population, which matches the thread's "25%". At that point Italy had more than 5,800 confirmed cases and 233 deaths.
🟣 STAGE 3:
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
The number of cases is rapidly going up.
They almost doubled in one day.
There's more deaths.
They declare red zones and quarantine the 4 regions where the majority of cases are registered (March 7).
In Italy 25% of the county is under quarantine.
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STAGE 3 (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
Schools and universities are closed in these areas but bars, work places, restaurants and so on are still open.
The decree gets released by some newspaper before it should...
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A draft of the decree leaked to the press on the evening of 7 March, before it took effect, causing panic in Milan. The thread claims about 10,000 people fled the red zone that night. That figure is not supported by later reporting. According to an estimate by La Repubblica, fewer than 1,000 people left Milan for the south on 7 March. There was a real rush to the trains, and it was widely criticised, but the scale in the viral version was exaggerated.
STAGE 3 (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
...so around 10k people from the red zone escape from the area that same night to return to their homes in the rest of Italy (this will be important later).
Most of the population of the remaining 75% of Italy still does what it always does.
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STAGE 3 (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
They still don't realize the seriousness of the situation. Everywhere you turn people advise to wash your hands and limit going out, large groups are forbidden, every 5 minutes on TV they remind you of these rules.
But it still hasn't settled in people's mind.
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The author's other observation, that rules were everywhere on TV but had not yet changed behaviour, is a familiar pattern in any emergency. Knowing a rule and feeling personally affected by it are not the same thing.
Stage 4: hospitals at their limit
The fourth stage is the most painful part of the thread. Schools close nationwide, the health system is declared in emergency, wards are cleared for COVID patients, and retired doctors and final-year medical students are called in to help. Staff work without proper shifts and some are infected themselves.
🟤 STAGE 4:
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
The number of cases is heavily increasing.
Schools and universities are closed everywhere for at least a month.
It's a national health emergency.
Hospitals are at capacity, entire units are cleared to make space for coronavirus patients.
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STAGE 4 (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
There aren't enough doctors and nurses.
They're calling retired ones and those in their last 2 years of university.
There's no shifts any more, just work as much as you can.
Of course doctors and nurses are getting infected, spreading it to their families.
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The author describes intensive care becoming so stretched that doctors had to decide who to treat based on their chances of survival. Hospitals in Lombardy were reported to be under extreme pressure in March 2020, and Italian intensive care specialists discussed how to allocate scarce ICU beds. The specific personal stories in the thread, such as a doctor friend who had to let three people die in one day, cannot be independently confirmed.
STAGE 4 (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
There's too many cases of pneumonia, too many people who need ICU and not enough places for everyone.
At this point is like being at war: doctors have to choose who to treat based on their survival chance.
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STAGE 4 (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
That means that the elderly and trauma/stroke patients can't get treated because corona cases have priority.
There's not enough resources for everybody so they have to be distributed for best outcome.
I wish I was joking but it's literally what has happened.
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STAGE 4 (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
People have died because there wasn't any more space.
I have a doctor friend who called me devastated because he had to let 3 people die that day.
Nurses crying because they see people dying and can't do anything aside from offering some oxygen.
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By 12 March, the date the author gives for the end of the account, Italy's reported death toll had passed 1,000. One week later, on 19 March, it had more than 35,000 confirmed cases and nearly 3,000 deaths.
Stages 5 and 6: national lockdown and closed shops
On the evening of 9 March 2020, Conte announced that the quarantine would apply to the whole country from the next day. Italy became the first country in the world to impose a national lockdown. Travel was limited to work, health needs and emergencies, and all sporting events were cancelled. Milan's stock index fell 11% when markets reopened.
🔴 STAGE 5:
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
Remember the 10k idiot who ran from the red zone to the rest of Italy?
Well, the entire country has to be declared under quarantine (March 9).
The goal is to delay the spreading of the virus as much as possible.
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STAGE 5 (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
People can go to work, do grocery shopping, go to the pharmacy, and all businesses are still open because otherwise the economy would collapse (it already is), but you can't move from your commune unless you have a valid reason.
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STAGE 5 (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
Now there's fear, you see a lot of people with masks and gloves around but there are still are people who think that they're invincible, who go to restaurants in large groups, hang out with friends to drink and so on.
Next step.
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Two days later, on 11 March, Conte ordered all shops and businesses to close except essential services such as supermarkets, food shops and pharmacies. That is the sixth stage in the thread. People leaving home had to carry a signed self-declaration stating who they were, where they were going and why, and police set up checkpoints to check them.
⚫️ STAGE 6:
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
2 days later, it's announced that all (most) businesses are closed: Bars, restaurants, shopping centers, all kinds of shops etc.
Everything except supermarkets and pharmacies.
You can move around only if you have certification with you.
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STAGE 6 (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
The certification is an official document where you declare your name, where you're coming from, where you're going and what for.
There are a lot of police check points.
If you're found outside without a valid reason you risk a fine up to €206.
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STAGE 6 (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
If you're a known positive patient you risk from 1 to 12 years of jail for homicide.
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Two details in this part of the thread need care. The €206 fine was the figure widely reported in the first days of the lockdown; Italy changed its penalties several times over the following weeks, so it is not a fixed rule. The claim that a person who tested positive faced "1 to 12 years of jail for homicide" is an oversimplification. Prosecutors could bring charges under laws on offences against public health, but the thread's wording should not be read as a precise legal summary.
The author's final thoughts
The thread ends with a reflection. Everything described had happened in about two weeks, and only five days separated stage three from the day of writing. The author's message to other countries was that they were simply earlier on the same curve.
FINAL THOUGHTS:
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
That's what the situation is like now today as of the March 12th.
Keep in mind that it all happened in around 2 weeks...
5 DAYS FROM STAGE 3 TO TODAY.
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FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 14, 2020
The rest of the world apart from Italy, China and Korea is just now beginning to reach other stages, so let me tell you this:
You have no idea what's coming to get you.
I know because 2 weeks ago I was the one who had no idea and though it wasn't bad.
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FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 15, 2020
But it is.
And not because the virus alone is particularly dangerous or deadly, but for all the consequences it brings.
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Interestingly, the writer praised the Italian government's tough response as drastic but necessary, pointed to signs that the earliest red zones were improving, and mentioned support measures for mortgage holders and businesses forced to close. The thread closes by wondering whether the pandemic would become a turning point for society.
FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 15, 2020
It's hard to see all these countries act like it's not coming and not taking the precautions that are necessary for the well-being of its citizens while they still can.
Please if you're reading this try to act in your best interest.
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FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 15, 2020
This problem isn't going to solve itself by ignoring it.
Just wondering how many undiscovered cases there might be in America alone is scary, and they're in for a big, big trouble because of how their country is run.
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FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 15, 2020
Our government for once did a good job I must say.
The actions taken were drastic but necessary, and this may be the only way to limit the spreading.
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FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 15, 2020
It's working in China so we hope it will work here too (it's already working in some of the first red zones which were quarantined before everybody else).
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FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 15, 2020
They're taking measures to protect us citizens such as probably suspending mortgage payments for next months, help for shop owners who were obligated to close and so on.
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FINAL THOUGHTS (cont'd):
— Yano (@JasonYanowitz) March 15, 2020
I realize that these takes are really difficult, if not impossible, to take in some countries, and it's really worrying to think about what it could mean in global scale.
I wonder if this pandemic will be a turning point in our society.
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What the thread got right, and what to take from it
With hindsight, the thread's main warning held up. Many countries that hesitated in March 2020 went on to face the same sequence: denial, local measures, overwhelmed hospitals and then national restrictions. Italy itself kept its lockdown in place until 4 May 2020, when a gradual "Phase 2" began.
Where it went wrong, it was mostly in the details that viral posts tend to inflate: the number of people who fled Milan and the exact penalties for breaking the rules. That is a useful lesson in itself. First-person accounts can capture how a crisis feels, but numbers and legal claims should always be checked against official or well-sourced reporting.
For anyone looking back at the early pandemic, the thread remains a vivid time capsule. It shows how quickly "it won't happen here" can turn into empty streets, and why early, clear public health action matters. For more first-hand accounts from that period, see our piece on Italians in quarantine writing to their past selves, and how donations of masks and test kits began to reach Europe.
Sources: Thread shared by Jason Yanowitz on Twitter, 14 March 2020 (no longer available); Wikipedia: COVID-19 lockdowns in Italy.
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