Safest Countries in a World War? Neutrality, Peace Index and Limits

Originally published 2018-04-22.

MATEJMO VIA GETTY IMAGES

No country can promise safety in a third world war, but some are usually named as better placed than others: Iceland, New Zealand, Switzerland, Ireland, Portugal, Canada and a few more. They tend to share three things: a long record of staying out of conflicts, distance from the likely flashpoints, and the ability to feed and power themselves. This article looks at a list of ten such countries that circulated widely in April 2018, explains what each claim was based on, and corrects the parts that do not hold up.

Treat it as a discussion of how people reason about risk, not as relocation advice. Any real decision about where to live or travel should rely on current official guidance.

Why this list appeared in April 2018

In early April 2018, a suspected chemical attack on the Syrian town of Douma killed dozens of people. The United States blamed the government of Bashar al-Assad, which Russia supported militarily. When Moscow's officials warned that Russia would shoot down missiles fired at Syria, President Donald Trump answered on Twitter with the post embedded below. A few days later the US, the UK and France launched strikes on Syrian chemical-weapons sites.

Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 11, 2018

The exchange set off a wave of "World War 3" headlines. Lists of the "safest countries" spread quickly, most of them built on the same two ingredients: the Global Peace Index and a country's tradition of neutrality. One of the most shared versions was published by Indy100, the viral-news site of The Independent.

What actually makes a country safer in a global war

Before looking at individual countries, it helps to know which factors matter and which are wishful thinking.

• Not being a target. Countries without nuclear weapons, major military bases or alliance obligations are less likely to be attacked directly. Membership of NATO, for example, is a security guarantee but also a commitment to take part in collective defence.
• Distance. Remote islands in the Southern Hemisphere are far from the most likely conflict zones.
• Food and energy. A country that grows much of its own food and generates its own electricity copes better if trade is cut.
• Stable institutions. Low crime, low political violence and trust in government help a society hold together under strain.

None of these protects against global effects. Scientists who model a large nuclear exchange warn that smoke from burning cities could cool the climate and damage harvests worldwide, which would hit even the most distant and peaceful nations.

About the Global Peace Index

Most of these lists lean on the Global Peace Index (GPI), produced each year by the Institute for Economics and Peace in Sydney. In 2017 it used 23 indicators, grouped into domestic and international conflict, safety and security, and militarisation, to rank more than 160 countries. Scores run from 1 to 5, and lower means more peaceful.

One common misreading is worth correcting. The original list claimed Iceland scored "a one", but no country gets a perfect score: Iceland led the 2017 index with a score of about 1.1. The GPI also measures what researchers call "negative peace", the absence of violence and the fear of it. It is a snapshot of how peaceful a country is now, not a forecast of how it would fare in a world war.

Iceland has topped every edition of the index since 2008. Recent rankings place New Zealand, Switzerland, Slovenia, Ireland, Austria and Portugal near the top as well.

The ten countries, one by one

Here is the 2018 list, from tenth to first, with a short reality check for each.

10. Ireland

Ireland declared itself neutral soon after independence and kept that stance through the Second World War, a period still known in Ireland as "The Emergency". It is not a NATO member, and sending Irish troops abroad has traditionally required a UN mandate, a government decision and a vote in the Dáil, a rule known as the "triple lock". Its neutrality has limits, though: the Defence Forces number only about 10,500, Ireland shared intelligence with the Allies during the war, and since 2022 politicians have openly debated what neutrality should mean.

9. Switzerland

Swiss neutrality was recognised by the European powers in 1815, after the Napoleonic Wars, and the country has not fought a foreign war since. Its approach is "armed neutrality": during the Second World War it mobilised some 850,000 soldiers and planned to retreat into fortified Alpine positions. Switzerland is also known for its network of civil-defence shelters. In 2022 it adopted EU sanctions against Russia, which some critics described as a step away from strict neutrality.

8. Slovenia

The original list praised Slovenia's energy independence and said it had "mostly" stayed out of both world wars. The second claim is wrong. In the First World War Slovenes were conscripted into the Austro-Hungarian army, and the twelve battles of the Isonzo were fought on what is now Slovenian territory; more than 30,000 Slovene soldiers were killed. In 1941 Germany, Italy and Hungary invaded and divided the country, and around 8% of the population died during that war. Slovenia also joined NATO in 2004. On energy, it does generate much of its own power from hydro, thermal plants and the Krško nuclear plant, which it co-owns with Croatia, but it still imports part of its electricity. It does rank among the most peaceful countries in recent editions of the GPI.

7. Fiji

Fiji's remote position in the South Pacific is a genuine advantage. "Traditionally kept out of international conflicts" needs nuance, however: Fijian soldiers are a familiar presence in UN peacekeeping missions in Lebanon, the Sinai and elsewhere, and the country experienced military coups in 1987, 2000 and 2006. Distance helps, but internal stability matters too.

6. Denmark

Denmark was the list's odd choice. It is a founding member of NATO, and the argument that Greenland would offer a neutral refuge does not work: Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, and it hosts Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base), a US installation whose radar provides early warning of missiles aimed at North America. That makes it strategically important rather than out of the way.

5. Austria

Austria has been permanently neutral since 1955, when Soviet and Western troops left in return for that commitment. It is not in NATO, though it is a member of the European Union. It ranked fourth in the 2017 GPI.

4. Portugal

Portugal ranked third in the 2017 index. It is a NATO founding member, which complicates the "stay out" argument, but it sits on the western edge of Europe and has had low levels of internal conflict.

3. New Zealand

New Zealand combines distance with real self-sufficiency. Most of its electricity comes from renewable sources, mainly hydro, and it produces far more food than it consumes. Its isolation is why it appears in nearly every list of this kind, and why wealthy foreigners have bought remote property there.

2. Canada

Canada placed eighth in the 2017 GPI. It has huge resources and plenty of space, but it is a NATO member, shares a long border with the United States and lies under the polar routes that missiles between Russia and North America would cross. Calling it "uninvolved" in a hypothetical war is optimistic.

1. Iceland

Iceland tops the peace index and has no standing army. It generates almost all of its electricity from hydro and geothermal sources. However, it is a founding member of NATO, and its location in the North Atlantic has made it strategically valuable since the Second World War, when British and then American forces occupied it.

What the list gets right and wrong

Several picks hold up well. Iceland, New Zealand, Ireland, Switzerland and Austria really do combine peaceful societies with either neutrality or distance. Others are weaker: Denmark, Portugal, Canada and Iceland are all NATO members, Slovenia's wartime history was the opposite of what the list claimed, and Fiji's internal politics have been turbulent.

The bigger lesson is that safety in a global crisis depends on things a ranking cannot capture: the type of war, whether supply chains survive, the climate effects of any nuclear use, and how well a society copes under pressure. Even the best-placed countries would feel the consequences.

A calmer way to think about war fears

Talk of a third world war tends to rise with every international crisis, as it did in 2018 and has done many times since. It is normal to feel anxious when headlines are alarming. Practical steps help more than relocation fantasies: follow reliable news sources rather than viral lists, learn your own country's civil-protection advice, and keep the kind of basic emergency kit that is useful for storms and power cuts anyway.

If worry about world events is affecting your sleep or daily life, talking to someone you trust, or to a doctor, is a sensible step.

Sources: Wikipedia: Global Peace Index; Institute for Economics and Peace, Global Peace Index 2017 (via ReliefWeb); Wikipedia: Irish neutrality; Wikipedia: Swiss neutrality; Wikipedia: Slovenia; Wikipedia: Republic of Fiji Military Forces; Wikipedia: Pituffik Space Base; original list by Indy100; header photo: MatejMo via Getty Images.